The Trump administration says it wants energy abundance — but it has declared war on the fastest and cheapest ways to achieve it.
That’s the central paradox we tackle this week in the first episode of Open Circuit, our new podcast featuring my co-hosting reunion with Jigar Shah and Katherine Hamilton.
The episode examines how the flood of executive orders, permit freezes, funding delays, and layoffs are creating precisely the kind of uncertainty that could thwart the Trump team’s energy goals.
“Do you want me to invest? Do you not want me to invest? Do you want me to make these 30-year commitments in new power plants, or are you sending me mixed signals?” That’s how Shah, who ran the Department of Energy’s loan office until a few weeks ago, characterized the confusion.
The administration wants to accelerate next-generation nuclear, natural gas, geothermal, and carbon capture projects — the kind of long-term infrastructure that requires policy consistency and iron-clad confidence in contracts. But it still has billions in federal funding under a freeze, and is actively looking to breach existing contracts.
“It’s been extremely disruptive. It’s stopped projects in their tracks,” explained Hamilton. “And when you not only have employees on the other end of those projects, but also orders for manufacturing on the other end, it does slow everything down.”
The administration is caught between two competing visions. Project 2025, its policy blueprint, focuses on delegitimizing government. But it can’t achieve energy abundance without a functional government to process permits, honor contracts, and provide the certainty needed for long-term infrastructure investment.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright talks about achieving “energy dominance.” But DOE may get hamstrung by figures like OMB Director Russell Vought, the Project 2025 author who is closely scrutinizing all agency spending. That means every decision could face additional review at OMB, slowing down the very projects needed for Wright’s dominance agenda.
“Part of what I’m concerned about is [Chris Wright] might just have to play defense the whole time against Russ Vought and others that he’s not actually going to be able to chart a course for energy dominance or energy abundance at all,” explained Shah.
The permitting delays are equally contradictory. Grid operators are scrambling to meet sudden load growth from AI and data centers. But the administration continues to stall permitting for renewables on public and private lands — resources that are fastest to build and currently represent 90% of what gets added to the grid.
Will market realities catch up? It’s possible the Trump team will be forced to moderate its approach as grid constraints worsen — and it becomes clear that there’s a vast queue of renewables and batteries ready to go.
“At some point if none of that stuff gets deployed in the grid, we’re going to have rolling blackouts,” Shah postulated.
The next few months will reveal whether raw political power can override market fundamentals and basic grid needs. But one thing is already clear: it’s virtually impossible to enable energy abundance while creating deep investment uncertainty by targeting the fastest-growing, lowest-cost resources.
Tune into our first episode of Open Circuit for a wide ranging conversation on which threats are real, which ones are noise, and how to think strategically about this moment. And make sure to subscribe to the show for fresh episodes every Friday.
