The five meteorologists working in-house at San Diego Gas & Electric have “very closely” been monitoring the next El Niño, the natural climate pattern that every two to seven years brings warmer temperatures to the Pacific Ocean, and creates the conditions for potential weather disruptions. That’s according to Brian D’Agostino, the company’s VP of wildfire and climate science, who told Latitude Media that the utility’s scientists have been tracking this year’s El Niño weekly, and updating the utility’s operations accordingly: “We need to understand how strong or severe this is going to get.”
That’s because according to predictions released earlier this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there’s a 61% chance that an El Niño will emerge between May and July, and a one in four chance that it will be “very strong,” meaning in some areas oceanic temperatures will be two degrees Celsius higher than average. According to Erik Smith, technical leader in the energy systems and climate analysis group at EPRI, that would be a “historically strong” El Niño.
“The strength of this event is pretty rare, and it happens every 15 to 20 years,” Smith said. “Depending on which seasonal climate model you look at, it could even be the strongest event in 140 years. So there’s definitely hype building around this.”
In a market where utilities are increasingly focused on resilience, this heightened awareness is prompting many across the U.S., including SDG&E, to adjust their operations preemptively to minimize the impact of weather disruptions.
What could happen
The thing about El Niño is that, unlike a localized weather event such as a storm, it does not necessarily guarantee a particular outcome for a particular utility. Rather, it is a large-scale climate shift, which generally means warmer and drier conditions in the North of the U.S., and wetter conditions in the South.
Rahul Dubey is co-founder and CTO of Rhizome, an AI-powered risk assessment platform that helps utilities plan long-term infrastructure investments through in-depth weather forecasting. He notes that for most utilities, there’s no such thing as targeted El Niño preparation, but rather an increased attention to broader weather patterns and the specific risks they carry.
In addition to the usual storm preparedness, he said, utilities “may also have to look at what happens at the intersection of warm weather, drought conditions, dry conditions, increased demand for electricity, and wildfire potential.”
SDG&E, for instance, is preparing for high heat, which means increased air conditioning use and overheating hardware.
“With our distribution planning system, we look at what circuits had the highest loads last year, look at additional electric vehicles and loads on the system, and analyze all of that,” D’Agostino said. “We’ve identified 30 circuits that could be [stressed by] increased high heat, and we’re going out and fixing them.”
This is work that the utility does every year going into summer, “but this year it could be even more important because of the developing El Niño,” he said.
Additionally, SDG&E is monitoring the potential for coastal flooding, as strong El Niño conditions can elevate sea levels by as much as 12 inches and increase the frequency of heavy rainfall in the San Diego area. This is leading the utility to ramp up maintenance of drainage systems and low-lying substations, as well as to create contingency plans in case flooding does happen.
In the Pacific Northwest, on the other hand, the main concern is that El Niño could worsen the danger of droughts that are already impacting hydroelectric resources. Just last month, a heatwave caused snow in the region to start melting earlier than usual. “The snow reservoir is already low, and it’s been depleted earlier than when demand is going to be peaking in the summer, and that’s going to drive a lot of potential issues,” Smith said.
As a Seattle City Light spokesperson told Latitude Media in an email, a warmer, drier winter next year could impact hydro into 2027. As the risk of drought emerges, we operate more conservatively to store more water in our reservoirs to support instream flow objectives and power supply during critical periods,” they said, though they noted that this strategy “does not distinguish El Niño-driven droughts from other droughts.”
‘Think in terms of extremes’
But, as the Seattle City Light spokesperson noted, the country’s utilities could still experience business as usual. “There are still lots of examples of El Niño years that ended up with near-average flow conditions,” they said.
An important thing to keep in mind about the climate pattern, D’Agostino added, is that it’s “very variable.”
“We have to be prepared for the worst, but at the same time, forecasts can vary greatly,” he said. “Every single strong El Niño before [2022–2023] brought flooding rain across southern California. So, in [2022–2023] we prepared very actively, and we invested millions of dollars into ensuring our facilities were ready for flooding rain, and it never showed up.”
The utility certainly didn’t regret those investments, which fortified the grid nevertheless. But this illustrates a risk that is typical of resilience planning: investing in a threat that may not materialize. In a way, the balancing act utilities perform when preparing for El Niño exemplifies the broader difficulty in valuing resilience, which is notoriously hard to quantify.
Dubey advises utilities to use the growing slate of tools like Rhizome’sto run different kinds of scenarios and take into consideration the most extreme ones. “Then a weather pattern like El Niño, if it presents an extreme case of something, then you have actually quantified that sooner, and you are prepared for it through your investments,” he said. “If you’re looking for long-term resiliency, think in terms of extremes, and it covers most of the weather patterns.”
