For those of us already convinced that virtual power plants have potential, the evidence feels overwhelming. They’re real. They work. But belief inside the VPP community isn’t enough. If grid operators, planners, and regulators don’t trust these resources to perform as well as — or better than — conventional generation when it matters most, the energy transition will stall.
This moment is pivotal. Extreme weather, electrification, and rising demand are stressing the grid. Traditional infrastructure can’t scale fast enough, yet much of the system still treats distributed energy resources as supplemental rather than structural. To keep energy reliable and affordable, we must convince skeptics that VPPs are every bit as dependable as turbines and substations—and in some ways, even more capable.
A new standard: The Huels test
The first step to overcoming skepticism is establishing objective ways to measure whether VPPs are truly as dependable as conventional grid assets. To that end, we’ve introduced what we call the Huels Test, a simple litmus test for determining whether a VPP can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with a traditional power plant.
Borrowing from the spirit of the Turing Test, it asks: From the control room’s perspective, does this VPP look and act like a traditional generator — visible, reliable, and dispatchable?
A VPP that passes the Huels Test demonstrates high-quality, low-latency telemetry; predictable performance aligned with forecasts; and the ability to follow dispatch schedules precisely. It behaves like any asset grid operators can depend on in real time.
Passing this test is about earning trust. Regulators and utility teams won’t shift their planning frameworks until they know, intuitively and empirically, that VPPs deliver grid services they can count on.
From passing the test to raising the bar
While the Huels Test defines what it will take for VPPs to be considered as capable as infrastructure, simply passing the test is not the end goal. VPPs can do more than merely mimic the behavior of a conventional power plant; they can outperform one. They can anticipate demand, adjust in seconds, and coordinate across millions of devices to protect local infrastructure and balance wholesale markets simultaneously.
That’s where the VPP Maturity Model comes in — a framework that maps how DER portfolios evolve from manual demand response to fully autonomous, grid-adaptive systems.
Level 0: Basic demand response: Systems that rely on one-way communications such as HVAC or water heater switch programs, or C&I DR programs that rely on phone calls or emails to participants, without feedback data for performance reporting.
Level 1: Connected demand response: IoT-enabled, event-based demand reduction during peak periods with reporting enabled by bi-directional data flow.
Level 2: Enhanced demand response: Automated response to grid or market signals, with flat load shapes and limited locational control.
Level 3: Automated VPP: Passes the Huels Test. Dynamically shapes load with higher availability across seasons and integrations into grid-control systems.
Level 4: Grid-adaptive VPP: Surpasses conventional generation by delivering both bulk- and distribution-level grid services. Operates continuously and autonomously, optimizing for reliability, cost, and emissions.
VPPs move up this maturity curve as they prove their reliability and value, not just to demand-side management teams, but also to the people running and planning the grid.
Proof in the field
Real-world performance shows how VPPs are already meeting the reliability bar and climbing higher.
Massachusetts: Delivering utility-grade results
National Grid orchestrated about 20,000 thermostats and 2,400 home batteries to achieve a four-hour, 17 MW load reduction event with a smooth, consistent profile and zero rebound. For grid operators, that’s indistinguishable from dispatching a peaker plant.
Arizona: Scaling beyond thermostats
Arizona Public Service has enrolled more than 100,000 devices, including thermostats, EVs, and batteries, providing over 100 MW of flexible capacity. The program’s dispatch accuracy and steady performance have proven to APS grid operators that distributed resources can deliver predictable, reliable capacity at Level 2.
Behind the scenes, what makes that consistency possible are customer-focused tactics such as pre-cooling homes during midday solar hours, automatically aligning dispatch with time of use schedules, and inferring EV driver plug-out times to guarantee that drivers get the charge they need.
Existing EV managed charging programs provides a glimpse of what Level 3+ would look like in practice. In several regions, utilities are coordinating thousands of EVs with multi-level distribution load optimization, delivering bulk-grid load reduction objectives in near real time, while simultaneously protecting distribution grid infrastructure and ensuring drivers get the charge they need.
Data we compiled for a forthcoming report from the Brattle Group shows that active EV managed charging reduces grid overloading by 50% and defers distribution infrastructure upgrades by eight to 10 years. These are early signals of what Level 3+ maturity looks like in practice, held back from Level 4 only by more dynamic integrations with utility distribution systems and more widespread EV OEM support for real-time data and control.
Scaling requires more than technology
Technology can make VPPs capable, but trust makes them valuable. Mature VPPs demand alignment across regulatory frameworks, customer engagement, and utility operations. That’s where our VPP Maturity Model comes in: a framework that maps how DER portfolios evolve from manual demand response to fully autonomous, grid-adaptive systems.
Regulators must create pathways for utilities to earn returns on VPPs that reflect their true value. Customers need simple programs that offer tangible benefits: savings, comfort, and control. And utilities must integrate VPP operations directly into planning processes so that capacity modeled on paper can be delivered in the real world.
The most advanced DERMS are currently capable of Level 2-3, depending on the capabilities of DER manufacturers. We expect to deliver VPPs at Level 3 in the next few years as device OEMs provide enhanced data and dispatch capabilities and as utilities and regulators realize the greater value those VPPs deliver to the grid.
But none of that happens unless the people who plan and run the grid believe it. The future of VPPs hinges on trust. Trust earned through performance, transparency, and collaboration.
The path is clear. Pass the Huels Test. Climb the maturity curve. Work with regulators, grid operators, DER manufacturers, and your VPP provider to define, measure, and improve the capabilities that matter most. Modernize financial incentives for customers, utilities, and technology providers so that we can deliver more value from more capable VPPs.
That’s how we move VPPs from the periphery to the center of grid reliability, and build a power system ready for what’s next.
Seth Frader-Thompson is the founder and president of EnergyHub. The opinions represented in this contributed article are solely those of the author, and do not reflect the views of Latitude Media or any of its staff.
