Nearly 18 gigawatts of new solar came online in the U.S. in the first half of 2025, according to an analysis out this week from Wood Mackenzie. Solar and storage installations dominated deployments, making up 82% of all new power added to the grid during that time, the analysis found.
That analysis forecasts that a total of around 40 GW of solar will be installed this year, driven in part by “demand pull-in” from the early phase-out of the investment tax credit, explained Kaitlin Fung, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie focusing on utility-scale solar.
“We see two rushes of construction happening, mainly in 2027 and 2030,” Fung added, pointing to the new “commence construction” and “enter into service” deadlines for solar projects under the GOP reconciliation bill passed in July.
However, there’s a massive pipeline of large load commitments, primarily from hyperscaler data centers, that points to sustained, near-term demand for solar deployment, said Fung. Utilities have already committed to 99 GW of new large load capacity — around 15.5% of current national peak demand — and Wood Mackenzie’s project tracking estimates about 125 GW of high probability load.
The impact of the energy capacity crunch, combined with the premature end of the tax credits can be seen in the earlier stages of the solar buildout pipeline, she added.
For example, while 91% of disclosed capacity under construction is in regulated markets, future capacity is shifting toward deregulated markets: 46% of committed capacity that’s not yet under construction, and 35% of capacity that’s in “advanced discussion,” is being planned for deregulated markets. Three-quarters of that future capacity, Fung explained, is planned for PJM and ERCOT.
And, regardless of federal policy changes, that demand will largely have to be met with solar. Around 50 GW of utility-scale solar projects signed interconnection agreements in the last year and a half, Fung said.
“If you look at the gas turbine supply chain constraints, if you were to put in an order today it’s going to take about five to seven years to get your turbine,” she explained. “So we’re not really seeing gas come online to meet this [demand] until 2030.”
By then, she added, the boost in near-term deployment caused by the rush to install projects in time to meet tax credit deadlines will start to run into headwinds: Wood Mackenzie expects solar deployment by 2030 to be 4% lower than the pre-OBBB expectations.
This report landed right as the renewable energy industry gathered for the first major conference since the passage of the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill,” at RE+ in Las Vegas. According to a client note from Jefferies, the conference is “generally reaffirming” the improving backdrop to solar; basically, the sentiment on the ground was that things aren’t as bad as they could be for solar — especially for utility-scale solar, but also for residential.
That said, it was storage, which retained key tax credits in the OBBB negotiations, that is “increasingly in the spotlight.” Jefferies expects storage development to “stay robust” in the years to come.
Can the supply chain handle the rush to build?
As solar deployment accelerates, it also means mounting pressure on the relatively fragile domestic supply chain.
U.S. module manufacturing capacity expanded by 13 GW in the first half of 2025, reaching a total of 55 GW production capacity. Upstream investment, however, stalled in the second quarter, in the face of policy uncertainty and trade disputes.
Companies are moving to vertically integrate and secure domestic production capacity. Nextracker recently acquired Origami Solar, a U.S.-based maker of solar panel frames, and inverter maker Tigo Energy announced plans to establish U.S. manufacturing to capitalize on federal incentives and developer demand for domestic content.
Elissa Pierce, a solar module analyst at Wood Mackenzie, explained that while the U.S. saw record module production last quarter — of which about 9 GW was produced domestically and 11 GW imported — some manufacturers are already reporting inventory shortages.
“I just heard from one manufacturer that their inventory has run out, and now their buyers have to wait for them to get more modules, which could really restrain some developers from being able to get modules in time to safe harbor them,” Pierce explained. However, she added, “we’re not seeing a super constrained supply yet,” she added, pointing to strong import numbers.
That could soon change though, as more manufacturers run down their inventory, and depending on the outcome of ongoing tariff cases impacting products made in places like India, Indonesia, and Laos.
Editor’s note: This piece was updated on September 12 to correct the number of large load agreements committed so far; there are 99 GW of committed agreements, and Wood Mackenzie estimates about 125 GW of high probability load. An earlier version of the article said that there have been 116 GW of committed agreements.
