The United States is leading the world in new data center capacity, but forecasts out this week from McKinsey indicate Europe isn’t far behind — and it’s likely to hit many of the same grid-related bottlenecks facing American data center developers.
Data center growth in Europe could reach 35 gigawatts by 2030, according to McKinsey’s report. Powering that demand would require more than 150 terawatt-hours of electricity.
Data center load, the report found, could account for as much as 25% of all new net European demand added through 2030, for a total of around 5% of total consumption.
That’s compared to the U.S., where McKinsey estimates 80 GW of data center demand by 2030, requiring 606 TWh of power. By that time, data center load could account for as much as 40% of all net new demand in the U.S., accounting for as much as 11.7% of domestic power demand, according to McKinsey data. (Some are disputing those estimates.)
And just like the U.S., a surge in power demand will lead European developers to grapple with grid capacity problems and interconnection wait times. And with permitting problems slowing European renewables development, access to clean energy could be problematic.
In the U.S., some electric utilities are already turning toward coal and natural gas to power new load, while the hyperscalers themselves are almost universally reporting increases in their overall emissions, largely because of increased data center workloads.
But accommodating Europe’s AI boom isn’t just about increasing the region’s supply of clean electricity. McKinsey estimates that data center infrastructure alone — not including power generation — will require an investment of between $250 and $300 billion.
Developers will also face a slew of other challenges. Shortages of the power equipment used in data centers can result in project delays of anywhere from four months to nearly two years. Lack of skilled tradespeople to build facilities and infrastructure is also a problem, according to McKinsey research. And in established data center markets like Dublin and Frankfurt, timelines for getting power to new data centers can be more than five years.
But there are system-wide benefits. The massive influx of investment needed to support data center growth in Europe could serve as a catalyst for modernizing grid infrastructure that supports other parts of the economy, the report said.
