Failed investments in industrial decarbonization are piling up faster than successful ones.
Between 2018 and the third quarter of 2025, U.S. companies have canceled $17 billion worth of projects in technologies such as hydrogen, clean fuels, carbon management, and green cement — exceeding the $15 billion invested in developing new industrial decarbonization projects over the same period.
That’s according to new data released today by the Clean Investment Monitor, a joint project of the Rhodium Group and MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, which tracks investment in emerging climate tech over the past eight years. (The project was founded in 2023.)
The cancellations highlight how challenging it is for these newer technologies to gain traction in a market disrupted by policy uncertainty and other headwinds. This quarter, the data reflects the early effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill, signed in July: surges of immediate investments in sectors facing expiring credits, and a slowdown in others.
Hydrogen, both green and blue, dominates the cancellations, with companies having scrapped $7 billion of projects, including some that were already under construction. For instance, the green hydrogen developer Topsoe’s recently decided to pause work on its $400 million electrolyzer factory in Richmond, Virginia, due to poor demand and a lack of policy support necessary. That’s despite the fact that the sector fared relatively well during OBBB negotiations; the industry’s targeted lobbying succeeded in pushing the 45V tax credit’s sunset from 2025 to January 2028.
Looking ahead, it’s likely that the number of industrial decarbonization cancellations in particular will increase. The sector has been slow to put money — both government and private sector funding — to work. Of all the industrial decarbonization investments announced since 2018, only one dollar of every 10 has actually been invested, a strikingly low ratio compared to the six in 10 invested for clean energy and manufacturing projects.
This leaves $136 billion in outstanding investment across all industrial decarbonization projects that have yet to be completed. In carbon management, for example, just 5% of the $29 billion in announced and not-yet-cancelled projects has been invested.
Of the total, at least $14 billion, or 10%, is tied to federal awards that have been revoked by the Department of Energy, or are at risk of being so. In October, DOE terminated 321 federal awards for a range of clean energy projects, including hydrogen and direct air capture. Just a few days later, a second, unconfirmed list showed another 351 projects earmarked for termination.
The surge before the slowdown
Meanwhile, the new data is also starting to show the market’s reaction to OBBB.
The Clean Investment Monitor reports that $75 billion flowed into clean energy and transportation in the year’s third quarter, which is the highest quarterly total on record. This surge, which represents a 9% increase from the previous quarter and an 8% increase from the same period in 2024, was anticipated as soon as the legislation passed.
It reflects both the release of pent-up investment once tax credit rules were clarified — and a rush by consumers and developers to claim incentives before they expire. It was mostly driven by EV sales, which reached $31 billion for the quarter, a 32% increase from the previous quarter and 30% from the same quarter in 2024; per the OBBB, the consumer-facing 30D consumer tax credit, which gave buyers up to $7,500 towards new EVs, expired on September 30.
These sales, however, are expected to slow once incentives expire. An analysis published earlier this year by BNEF revised its outlook for U.S. EV sales in light of the policy shifts and now projects 14 million fewer sales between 2025 and 2030.
The EV supply chain, which did not benefit from the same consumer tax credits, is already seeing a fall-off. Investment in critical minerals, batteries, vehicle assembly, and charging equipment reached $8 billion in Q3, a 30% drop compared to the third quarter of 2024. This is just one piece of the broader continued drop in investment in clean energy and transportation manufacturing, a trend stemming from Trump’s election that the Clean Investment Monitor had already started to detect last quarter.
