Despite multiplying announcements of new “hydrogen-ready” or “hydrogen-capable” power plants, the widespread use of hydrogen gas as a replacement for methane isn’t likely anytime soon.
That’s according to a report out today from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which urges state regulators and potential project investors to take a second close look at assertions that such projects will be powered by hydrogen.
- The top line: United States utilities and developers have announced hydrogen-ready projects in at least 18 states in recent years. But the country lacks the supply, pipeline infrastructure, and storage capacity needed to enable the widespread use of hydrogen as a replacement for methane, the report found.
- The current take: According to IEEFA energy analyst Dennis Wamsted, who authored the report, the reality for the next decade is that “any ‘hydrogen-capable’ gas-fired power plant is going to operate almost completely, if not completely, using methane,” despite proponents’ claims otherwise. “It’s critical that these projects be evaluated on that basis — not some hoped-for, potentially less environmentally damaging fuel that is years from broad commercial availability.”
Before hydrogen is in wide use as a replacement for methane, the authors found, there are three high hurdles the fuel would have to clear.
The problem trifecta
According to IEEFA’s report, converting the country’s 19 combined cycle gas plants to run on 100% hydrogen would require nearly 12 million metric tons, several tons more than current U.S. production. Creating that amount of green hydrogen would require more than 562 megawatt-hours of electricity — the entirety of the country’s utility-scale wind and solar capacity last year.
So, in large part because there simply isn’t enough supply of hydrogen, IEEFA predicts all new turbines will be methane-fired for the near future.
Then there’s the pipeline problem. Even if the U.S. could produce enough hydrogen, no pipeline network currently exists to distribute fuel to proposed hydrogen-capable turbine generators. Today, the U.S. has around 1,600 miles of hydrogen-dedicated pipelines, primarily in Texas and Louisiana. That’s compared to the more than 305,000 miles of natural gas lines criss-crossing the entire country.
Building the hydrogen network up to that scale would be prohibitively expensive and very slow-going, Wamsted said. And while some have floated the potential of blending hydrogen into existing methane pipelines, that would come with myriad problems and safety concerns that have yet to be addressed, he added.
There’s also the problem of storage, which would be fundamental to the smooth operation of a national hydrogen network. Today, storage facilities are even more scarce than pipelines. Just three underground salt cavern hydrogen storage facilities currently exist in the U.S., with the capacity to store just 0.1% of current demand.
To highlight the gulf between projections of hydrogen-ready plants and the reality, the report points to Duke Energy’s efforts to get regulatory approval for several new turbines in its territory. In its regulatory filings, Duke emphasizes the build out of “hydrogen-capable gas turbines,” but also says it doesn’t expect to use any of that potential hydrogen until 2035 — and even then at a mix of just 1% hydrogen, 99% methane.
“Duke’s projects, and the others being proposed today, are nothing more than traditional gas plants with environmentally friendly verbiage,” the report said. “State regulators and the financial community need to evaluate them on that basis.”
