U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.4% in 2025 after two straight years of decline, driven in part by a surge in coal power, according to estimates by the research firm Rhodium Group.
Utilities burned more coal to meet electricity demand from commercial buildings, including data centers and crypto mining operations. Demand growth was concentrated in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley regions.
Homes and buildings also burned more fossil fuels to stay warm during cold winter temperatures, researchers said; the majority of homes in the coldest parts of the U.S. rely on natural gas and fuel oil for heat.
The spike in emissions came as President Donald Trump returned to the White House and began rolling back federal climate and renewable energy policies. That said, it’s generally too soon for those shifts to cause a spike in emissions. There’s one exception, however: The Energy Department’s orders that eight coal plants to stay open beyond their planned retirement dates had some “modest contributions” to emissions, according to Rhodium Group.
“We aren’t yet seeing the direct effects of these policy changes in U.S. emissions,” researchers said. “That could change in the coming year or two, particularly if data center electricity demand continues to surge and the grid responds with more output from existing fossil generators instead of new, clean resources.”
Michael Gaffney, a research analyst at Rhodium Group and coauthor of the report, described 2025 emissions trends as “part signal, part noise.”
“We see variation in weather-driven demand for natural gas in buildings year to year. That’s a little bit of noise,” Gaffney told Latitude Media. “Where there’s really the signal is the power sector, and that’s completely a story of how the grid is choosing to meet load growth.”
Hyperscalers’ race to build data centers for artificial intelligence has led to skyrocketing load growth forecasts. BloombergNEF in December said U.S. data centers could demand 106 gigawatts by 2035, a 36% increase since its prior forecast in April. Electrification and the onshoring of manufacturing is also increasing electricity demand.
Rhodium Group said utilities chose to burn more coal to meet power demand last year because it was cheaper than gas, which saw a 58% price spike due to rising LNG exports and cold snaps.
Despite the headwinds, solar generation grew by 34% — its highest growth rate since 2017. This pushed the grid share of zero-emissions sources up by one percentage point, to 42%. Fossil fuels, though, still dominate the grid, with natural gas remaining the single-largest source of electricity.
The Trump administration and many Republican lawmakers are trying to slow the shift toward renewable energy. The Interior Department canceled already-approved federal permits for offshore wind projects and the GOP-controlled Congress rolled back tax credits for wind and solar power and electric vehicles in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The administration is also rolling back regulations that would further limit pollution from gas and coal plants.
As a result, the Rhodium Group estimates that U.S. emissions will decline slower over the next decade than previously anticipated.
It’ll also be more challenging for the firm to accurately track emissions, because the Trump administration stopped collecting and reporting a lot of data.
“We have some ideas about how to fill the gap, but there’s no question that this is a major loss,” Gaffney said. “We’re losing this reputable, robust annual accounting of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, because the EPA has the legal ability to compel certain information from industry that is not replaceable by a nongovernmental entity.”
