Between 30% and 50% of large data centers scheduled to come online this year are expected to be delayed due to power constraints, equipment shortages, and local opposition, according to new research by Sightline Climate.
The group found that at least 16 gigawatts of capacity is planned for 2026 globally, or nearly triple the levels built the previous year. But a quarter of the 140 projects haven’t disclosed how they plan to be powered and only 5 GW is already under construction — primarily in the U.S. It typically takes more than a year to energize a large-scale data center after it’s secured permits.
A similar trend played out in 2025, when 26% of 110 projects expected to come online were delayed, with timelines spilling over into this year.
“The 2025 projects were planned likely two to three years ago, predating the absolute acceleration in AI demand and today’s labor and equipment shortages,” Olivia Wang, research analysts at Sightline and co-author of the report, told Latitude Media. “So projects developed under comparatively easier conditions still struggled to come online on time. We think those slated for this year are likely to face even steeper challenges.”
The data center developer QTS discloses the statuses of its projects on its website, making it easier to identify what’s delayed, Wang said. The company has announced a nearly 5 GW pipeline of projects since January of 2024, about a quarter of which is still under construction despite commitments to come online by end of 2025. However, that level of transparency is an outlier in the industry, which is cagey about how long things take. The Stargate Project (backed by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank), for example, isn’t sharing its timelines, nor are Amazon, Meta, and Vantage Data Centers.
Delays appear to be most pronounced among smaller and newer entrants, Wang said. Sightline also tracks canceled projects, tallying nine so far — indicating delays and not outright cancellations are the norm.
Meanwhile, developers often announce a lot of projects in parallel and test which can clear local regulations and contract power fastest, because there is a lot of uncertainty around securing permits and power. That has made it difficult for analysts to determine how much load will actually come online, including utilities and grid operators who’ve been flooded with speculative or “phantom” load requests that may not materialize.
Sightline’s first Data Center Outlook tracked 777 data center projects larger than 50 megawatts announced since January 2024.
Local opposition
Beyond the power constraints facing AI data centers, Wang said community resistance is “now a true material driver of attrition” in the development pipeline.
Sightline cited the cancellation of a proposed $1 billion data center in Michigan, which a local official told MLive was linked to Meta. Developers withdrew their rezoning application in December after months of public opposition over water use, strain on the electricity grid, environmental impacts, and the lack of transparency. The township instituted a six-month moratorium on new data center proposals so it could update its zoning rules.
Similar moratoriums have been proposed in at least 10 states, including in Louisiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Virginia. However, Wang said, “we think this will be more amplified this year.”
Going off-grid remains niche
Some companies are opting to build entirely off-grid data centers to avoid grid bottlenecks and local opposition.
It’s a move that has made headlines, given the enormous campuses being planned and the business strategy it’s prompting for companies from NextEra to Scale Microgrids. But for now, the actual footprint of those off-grid efforts remains small. More than half of the data centers expected to come online in 2026 plan to be grid-connected — as hyperscalers like AWS have been vocal about their preference for — while 3% will solely use onsite power.
“Despite the hype around fully islanded data centers, building your own power plant on site is still economically and operationally challenging at scale,” Wang said. “The caveat is that a lot of the high profile projects — Project Stargate, Fermi, Meta’s 1 GW Prometheus project — will be hybrid powered, so both grid-connected and on-site. That’s definitely something we’re seeing.”
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