How much are renewables contributing to emissions reductions this year?

In large swathes of the country, clean energy projects are making less of an impact on regional emissions than last year, according to research out today from clean energy software company REsurety, which measures kilograms of carbon dioxide avoided for each megawatt hour of wind and solar power generated in a particular region. 

• The top line: The emissions impact of solar projects generally decreased between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024, the report found. Nowhere was that trend more pronounced than in California, where projects have come up against congestion and curtailment.
• Market grounding: Overall deliverability of both wind and solar — how much energy can reach consumers in a given location — has also decreased, the report said, a sign of ongoing congestion that’s making it harder for clean energy to get to places like Chicago and Houston.
• The current impact: Emissions impact is central to an ongoing debate over how major tech companies should be sourcing clean energy to power their AI ambitions. The Emissions-First Partnership, which includes Amazon and Meta, among others, has advocated for procurement that focuses on emissions impact regardless of market boundaries. That’s opposed to a strategy espoused by companies like Microsoft and Google that aims to match energy purchases to the time and location of use.

Further east, solar’s emissions impact is also down in Texas, thanks in part to growing renewable penetration. Wind also saw a consistent decline in its emissions impact in the last year.

However, in places where renewable energy development is happening at a slower pace, emissions impact is still on the rise. The report pointed to New York state and the Midwest as prime examples of places where projects coming online are still offsetting fossil fuels, thereby resulting in higher local emissions reduction than in other parts of the country.

REsurety’s report also outlines a handful of other metrics for assessing the state of renewables in Q2, including average capacity factor —the ratio of energy produced  to its maximum potential — and market price.

The average capacity factor for both wind and solar projects were high in Q2, with wind particularly high compared to both seasonal averages and Q1 due to higher-than-usual wind speeds in the West and Midwest.

When compared to seasonal averages, solar and wind generation-weighted prices dropped in large swathes of the country, including California, Texas, the Midwest, and the upper plains. That’s largely thanks to large amounts of utility-scale buildout in Texas and southern California, and to higher wind capacity penetration in the Midwest and upper plains regions.