Power demand from U.S. data centers could hit 106 gigawatts by 2035, according to BloombergNEF, marking a 36% increase since its last forecast in April.
That said, it’s unclear how much of today’s pipeline will actually come online. The upward revision was primarily driven by a wave of deals for data centers that aren’t under construction yet, but have entered the queue early to secure power. The capacity under construction has remained stable since BNEF’s previous outlook.
The report arrives as investors increasingly question whether the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the chips, servers, and energy infrastructure needed to power artificial intelligence will yield returns. Talk of an AI bubble has ramped up in recent months as hyperscalers take on more debt to finance data centers.
This uncertainty has translated to a huge range in load growth forecasts. BNEF noted that 106 GW of power demand is more conservative than estimates from analysts at Goldman Sachs, Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Meanwhile, Grid Strategies — the organization that made waves with its initial estimates of ballooning load growth back in 2023 — updated its data center load forecast in November to 90 GW through 2030.
But John Wilson, who specializes in planning, rate, and other utility regulation issues at Grid Strategies, told Latitude Media last month that the figure was likely too high because the utility sector is struggling to accurately forecast the large new loads.
Some speculative growth, and energy ‘tipping points’
Data center projects are rising in both existing data center hubs—such as Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio—and in places with little historical data center presence, BNEF found. Pennsylvania and Louisiana, for instance, have gigawatt-scale projects underway.
Texas has become a top location for early-stage development since April, but the locations of an estimated 12 GW of new capacity remain unconfirmed.
“When focusing only on projects with verified locations, this total drops sharply to 1.8GW, underscoring how speculative much of Texas’ planned data center growth still is,” BNEF said.
Virginia remains the leader in attracting new development, although there has been some strong community pushback. In July, Amazon Web Services withdrew its application for a 1.1 GW campus in Louisa County after local residents raised concerns about the project’s water use and loss of agricultural land.
“The reversal demonstrates the growing difficulty of developing new large-scale data centers in the region,” BNEF said.
Meanwhile, there are signs that the power grid in Texas and PJM will soon be tapped out because new generation isn’t keeping up with planned data center growth.
In Texas, ERCOT has enough near-term demand growth from data centers, but additional supply will be needed later in the decade.And BNEF forecasted that PJM’s data center capacity will reach 31 GW by 2030. Over the same period, the Energy Information Administration estimates the region will require 28.7GW of new supply additions, just enough to keep pace with data center growth. As a result, the grid operator is at the center of debates over how to quickly interconnect new loads, who should cover infrastructure costs, and whether data centers can be reliable, flexible power assets.
